基于岩石物理模型的碳酸盐岩储层微观孔隙特征分析方法     

李博南  曲寿利  沈珲 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(1):285-293

碳酸盐岩储层的微观孔隙结构普遍具有类型复杂和纵向变化快的特征。由于地球物理资料尺度的限制,现有的解释手段不能有效刻画这些关键特征。笔者采用临界孔隙度模型作为理论依据,建立了微观孔隙结构与宏观弹性参数响应之间的定量关系;以岩石物理实验数据为约束,提出了一种基于概率统计学的方法估算储层关键参数并识别岩石孔隙类型。在YS1井的应用表明：新方法有效挖掘了声波测井数据中隐含的微观信息,参数预测结果达到较高的精度（平均相对误差小于10%）,可以为优质储层段的划分提供可靠的参考依据。  相似文献   

Appropriate temporal resolution of precipitation data for discharge modelling in pre-alpine catchments   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Anna E. Sikorska  Jan Seibert 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(1):1-16

Precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are desired for hydrological modelling and flood studies. Yet the choice of an appropriate resolution is not straightforward because the use of too high a temporal resolution increases the data requirements, computational costs and, presumably, associated uncertainty, while performance improvement may be indiscernible. In this study, the effect of averaging hourly precipitation on model performance and associated uncertainty is investigated using two data sources: station network precipitation (SNP) and radar-based precipitation (RBP). From these datasets, time series of different temporal resolutions were generated, and runoff was simulated for 13 pre-alpine catchments with a bucket-type model. Our results revealed that different temporal resolutions were required for an acceptable model performance depending on the catchment size and data source. These were 1–12 h for small (16–59 km²), 3-21 h for medium (60–200 km²), and 24 h for large (200–939 km²) catchments.  相似文献   

岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性分析     

周磊 《华南地震》2019,39(1):97-103

当前地震动速度时程时域特性分析方法,仅能分析岩溶区地震动速度时程的振动周期、强弱程度与时间变动的问题,但未能准确计算岩溶区砌体建筑物自振频率,导致砌体建筑环境振动特性分析结果存在误差。深入研究岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性分析方法,构建混凝土损伤塑性模型,分析岩溶区砌体建筑材料的屈服(受压)应力-非弹性应变关系、开裂(受拉)应力-非弹性应变关系和损伤因子;采用贝叶斯方法检测岩溶区砌体建筑受压受拉时的自振频率,通过L-M神经网络法消除自振频率后,使用振动特性分析方法准确分析岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性。实验结果表明,所提方法分析准确率高达0.99,分析16栋岩溶区砌体建筑环境振动特性耗时仅有5 ms,具有较高的分析精度和效率。  相似文献   

Bayesian analysis of individual and systematic multiplicative errors for estimating ages with stratigraphic constraints in optically stimulated luminescence dating     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Many dating techniques include significant error terms which are not independent between samples to date. This is typically the case in Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating where the conversion from characteristic equivalent doses to the corresponding ages using the annual dosimetry data includes error terms that are common to all produced datings. Dealing with these errors is essential to estimate ages from a set of datings whose chronological ordering is known. In this work, we propose and we study a Bayesian model to address this problem. For this purpose, we first consider a multivariate model with multiplicative Gaussian errors in a Bayesian framework. This model relates a set of characteristic equivalent doses to the corresponding ages while taking into account for the systematic and non-systematic errors associated to the dosimetry. It thus offers the opportunity to deal properly with stratigraphic constraints within OSL datings, but also with other datings possessing errors which are independent from systematic errors of OSL (e.g. radiocarbon). Then, we use this model to extend an existing Bayesian model for the assessment of characteristic equivalent doses from Single Aliquot and Regenerative (SAR) dose measurements. The overall Bayesian model leads to the joint estimation of all the variables (which include all the dose–response functions and characteristic equivalent doses) of a sequence of, possibly heterogeneous, datings. We also consider a more generic solution consisting in using directly the age model from a set of characteristic equivalent dose estimates and their associated standard errors. We finally give an example of application on a set of five OSL datings with stratigraphic constraints and observe a good adequacy between the two approaches.  相似文献   

Sparse Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion     

Amir Mollajan  Hossein Memarian  Beatriz Quintal 《Geophysical Prospecting》2019,67(7):1745-1763

The technique of seismic amplitude-versus-angle inversion has been widely used to estimate lithology and fluid properties in seismic exploration. The amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem is intrinsically ill-posed and generally stabilized by the use of L2-norm regularization methods but with drawback of smoothing important boundaries between adjacent layers. In this study, we propose a sparse Bayesian linearized solution for amplitude-versus-angle inversion problem to preserve the sharp geological interfaces. In this regard, a priori constraint term with two regularization functions is presented: the sparse constraint regularization and the low-frequency model information. In addition, to obtain high-resolution reflectivity estimation, the model parameters decorrelation technique combined with dipole decomposition method is employed. We validate the applicability of the presented method by both synthetic and real seismic data from the Gulf of Mexico. The accuracy improvement of the presented method is also confirmed by comparing the results with the commonly used Bayesian linearized amplitude-versus-angle inversion.  相似文献   

Rock-glacier dams in High Asia     

Jan H. Blöthe  Swenja Rosenwinkel  Thorsten Höser  Oliver Korup 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(3):808-824

Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71–0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

贝叶斯正则化的Elman神经网络电离层TEC预报模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

汤俊  高鑫 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(8):799-805

利用2017年中低纬电离层总电子含量、地磁活动指数、年积日等参数,首次建立基于贝叶斯正则化(Bayesian regularization)的Elman回归神经网络(BR-Elman)的电离层TEC预报模型。同时,根据地磁活动指数的变化特征,分别进行平静电离层和扰动电离层预报建模。实验结果表明,该方法在平静期5 d预测值的均方根误差为1.19 TECu,残差为1.03 TECu,相关系数为0.93;在扰动期5 d预测值均方根误差为1.34 TECu,残差为1.01 TECu,相关系数为0.91。贝叶斯正则化的BP神经网络模型以及传统BP神经网络模型在平静期与扰动期5 d的预测上,均方根误差最小为1.87 TECu,残差最小为1.50 TECu,相关系数最优为0.87。通过对比分析,该模型较其他2个模型的预报效果有明显改善。  相似文献   

基于Membrane MRF模型的SAR图像贝叶斯去斑          下载免费PDF全文

宋珩  王世唏  计科峰  郁文贤 《遥感学报》2009,13(2):203-207

SAR图像可以看作是真实反映地物后向散射特性的无噪图像与相干斑噪声的乘积,通过贝叶斯估计从图像观测值估计出图像真值即可去除相干斑.而贝叶斯去斑的关键在于建立能与SAR图像特性相匹配的先验信息模型.用MembraneMRF模型对先验信息建模,克服了以往所用GMRF模型对参数估计十分敏感的问题,并通过对该模型邻域结构的自适应调整来分类处理处于匀质区域和含结构特征区域的像元,在有效抑制相干斑的同时较好地保持图像的结构特征.仿真和实际SAR图像数据的实验结果,验证了所提方法的有效性.  相似文献   

Chronology of the Paleolithic site of Xibaimaying in the Nihewan Basin,North China,inferred from optical dating of fine-grained quartz     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

The Paleolithic site of Xibaimaying (XBMY), once considered the youngest flake tool site within the Nihewan Basin, North China, is an ideal archive to study the chronological relationship between flake tool and microblade industries in the Nihewan Basin during the Upper Palaeolithic, but the previous ages obtained for the site remain controversial. From 2015 to 2019, three areas at two archaeological localities (XBMY-I and XBMY-II) of the site were excavated, and well-preserved fossils and flake tools were unearthed. In this study, a total of 26 samples were collected from the three areas for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating using a single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol on fine-grained quartz. A shared ‘Standardized growth curve’ (SGC) for a section was constructed to reduce the time required for D_e estimation. The long-term weighted average water contents of the samples during their burial period were estimated based on the in-situ water contents of continuous samples from a nearby borehole. All the OSL ages were modelled via Bayesian statistics using the OxCal software, modifying the OSL ages with stratigraphic constraints in each section. The results show that the cultural layer bearing flake tool assemblages falls within the period of 122–36 ka, indicating that the flake tool industry of the Xibaimaying site is comparable to that of the Youfangbei (108–86 ka), Banjingzi (∼86 ka) and Xinmiaozhuang (75–63 ka) sites, rather than the youngest one in the Nihewan basin, which explains why the Xibaimaying site is characterized as pure flake tool culture without any ‘advanced’ trait. The OSL dating results also shed new light on the study of sedimentary processes in the Xibaimaying site area. The different deposition rates (0.01–1.61 mm/a) for the sediments at the three newly excavated areas imply complex geomorphologic processes in the site area.  相似文献   

基于非抽取小波变换贝叶斯估计的水下红外图像去噪     

卢明波  周军 《海洋技术学报》2010,29(1)

利用非抽取小波变换的平移不变性和冗余性的特点,在贝叶斯估计下,结合广义高斯分布(GGD)对小波系数进行建模,构造了一个基于拉普拉斯分布的MapShrink子带自适应图像去噪算法和阈值函数。对HH1子带小波系数进行2j抽取,并估计噪声方差,该算法有效地抑制了伪吉布斯现象。仿真结果表明,利用新算法进行水下红外图像去噪,在信噪比增益和最小均方误差意义上均优于传统的Bayesian去噪方法。  相似文献